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Connor Clifton: 2013 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

2013-05-20T15:00:08Z

As much attention will deservedly be placed on the first round, teams will have plenty of information on as many prospects as they can. A fourth-or-later round pick may be a long shot and it could be years before we know whether there's even a future in pro hockey for the player. However, finding someone can contribute anything at all at the pro level that late in the draft is a success. As such, we will be profile players projected to go in later rounds.

What better way to start than to look at apparently the highest ranked prospect by Central Scouting Services from New Jersey for this year's draft. Unless I'm sorely mistaken, that's the 88th ranked North American skater, defenseman Connor Clifton.

Who is Connor Clifton?

Clifton was born in Matawan and played for the New Jersey Hitman before joining up with the United States National Team Developmental Program prior to the 2012-13 season. He has since plied his trade with the U-18 squad scrimmaging against college teams and USHL squads. He's also performed at the international level as he represented the United States at this year's World U-18 tournament, scoring his only goal in the final loss to Canada. Clifton will join Quinnipiac University next year.

According to Elite Prospects' profile, Clifton is not big. He stands at 5'11" and weighs 163 lbs. Needless to say, that's going to be an issue at the next level. He's also rather young as he was born on April 28, 1995. While he's not going to be the youngest player, it is worth noting he was 17 throughout this past season. He has plenty of room to grow as a player, regardless of his small stature.

A look at his basic stats shows that he's had a penchant for the rough stuff in spite of his size. He's racked up PIM wherever's he's played except at the U-18 tournament. You'll also notice he hasn't racked up a lot of points. It's clear that Clifton hasn't been an offensive defenseman. Or at least an unproductive one. I wouldn't discount his talents immediately, as he participated with the USNTDP for one and a half seasons now. Players don't get to join the USNTDP unless they have talent and the fact he performed even at the international level means he has something to offer.

Speaking of the international level, based on the USA's stats at the IIHF site for the World U-18 tournament, Clifton only averaged 12:24 per game. I surmise he was on a third pairing with Clint Lewis, who played similar minutes. With only five shots on net all tournament, it belies that he wasn't really offensive at that level either. Even in a limited role, he was a part of a silver-medal roster and got action against some of the best in his age class. Incidentally, you can hear his reaction to the loss to Canada in the video in this Hockey's Future article from Chapin Landvogt.

As an aside, Andy Johnson noted over at the Western College Hockey Blog that Clifton was selected in the 2013 OHL Priority Selection draft. Clifton was picked by Peterborough in the fourth round and the team's going to at least make their case to try and get Clifton to switch out of college to go to the OHL. That's going to be a tough sell considering that Connor and his brother Tim both committed to Quinnipiac back in December 2011. Once he is drafted, I'm sure the team that picked Connor will have something to say about that. It's something to keep an eye on, especially if you're a Quinnipiac supporter.

What Experts Have Said about Connor Clifton

As you may expect for a prospect projected to go later in the draft, there's not exactly a lot out there for Clifton. But there is enough to get a better idea on what he can do.

First off, Kirk Luedeke - a man who knows all about prospects - has written a short profile about Clifton at the New York Hockey Journal. It features a few quotes from the player, but I'm going to highlight his quick thoughts on the player.

Although U.S. NTDP defenseman Connor Clifton is not a household name among 2013 NHL Entry Draft prospects, the Garden State product is quietly earning accolades for his steady two-way play.

...

Having met the challenge of the Team USA schedule in the USHL, NCAA and various international tournaments, Clifton is showing himself to be a capable defender. Although he is still raw and tougher to project at this stage of his development, the 18-year-old is someone who could get the call in his home state in late June.

It's not much but Luedeke does note that because of his late April birthday, it's difficult to determine what his performances in 2012-13 project a player to become. While he took plenty of calls with the USNTDP, steady is a complement for a defender of any kind.

Given that Clifton joined the USNTDP and did take part in the World U-18 tournament, Chris Peters definitely knows who he is and what he's done. Peters runs the United States of Hockey site and he's had two takes on the player. Here's what Peters had to say about Clifton prior to the 2012-13 season for the U-18 team.

Connor Clifton (Quinnipiac University) — Another newbie for the U18 team, Clifton helps shore up an already sound blue line. He has a full year of junior hockey under his belt after spending last season with the Jersey Hitmen in the EJHL. Additionally Clifton has some solid international experience, joining the U17s last year for a tournament and participating in the Ivan Hlinka in August. Clifton possesses some two-way abilities with a good first pass and enough strength to be tough to play against in his own zone. He might not light the world on fire skill-wise, but he’s a pretty smart, steady player and that could help his chances with scouts.

Certainly a reasonable take. He's young, he doesn't have a lot of skill but does have some tools and some clue on what to do on defense. There's nothing wrong with "steady" as a defensive player. After the U.S. team settled for silver at the U-18s, Peters had the following assessment of Clifton after the tournament:

Connor Clifton — Undersized, but physically strong, Clifton showed off some solid offensive capabilities, but some questionable decisions throughout the tournament make him more challenging to project. Clifton has a terrific shot from the point and is able to get pucks to the net well. Sometimes he got lost in the offensive zone, however, leading to turnovers and odd-man rushes the other way. A little too go-for-broke at times, Clifton will need to improve his decision-making in the future. That said, the offensive capabilities and his desire to play a mean, physical game despite his size are attractive qualities. Unafraid to mix it up and play the body first, there’s plenty of upside in Clifton and that could lead to a team taking a later-round stab at that potential. U18WC Statline: 7 GP, 1-0–1, 2 PIM -3. Projected Draft Range: Fifth to Sixth Round.

I'm happy to see that Peters noted his strength. That would explain the PIM as well; a player who uses his body quite a bit is going to take penalties and it's good in a way that Clifton uses it in spite of his frame. The issues of decision making are disappointing to read. It's not like Clifton lit it up at the tournament or at other levels where we can say that he's taken a lot of rewarding risks. He hasn't been all that productive in terms of points. That said, it is just one short tournament. Given his limited time, he may have felt like he had to make an impact even when it wasn't the right time to do so. In other situations, perhaps he's not like that. He did keep his nose relatively clean with one penalty. Even if it is an issue, it is a correctable one and he'll have plenty of time to improve on that at the next level.

An Opinion of Sorts

In my reading of what's available about Clifton, I get the sense that he will benefit from as much developmental time as possible. Even if he wasn't small, defense is a position that takes time to work on from positioning to decision making to timing among other aspects. Since he wasn't an offensive player back as a midget and junior with the Hitmen and he's a "young" 18-year old player, he's on the path of becoming a defensive player - which is more than fine. That makes it more paramount to work on those aspects. I think he'll get that playing for four years with Quinnipiac than if he were to go to Peterborough.

Interestingly, Peters thinks he could go much later than the fourth round. That very well could be the case. Just because CSS ranks someone in the top 100 among North American skaters doesn't mean he'll go within the first four rounds. He's not big and likely will not become big, he hasn't done anything flashy, and even if he is physical and strong defenseman, that's something you can find later in drafts anyway. The New Jersey Devils only have four picks in this year's draft. With a later pick, I'm not so concerned about position since it's a giant question mark as to whether those prospects will ever turn into anybody at all. It's those picks where you can take a chance on someone and in time hope they improve enough to be a professional player. Sometimes you get lucky and find someone like Mark Fayne, but those are the exceptions and not the rule. Since the Devils only have a fourth and a sixth round pick, they would do well to be more judicious than usual. If they had a fifth or additional picks in those rounds, then I would say they could take a flyer on him. But they don't so the question of whether "Will he be a pro defenseman in a few years?" looms larger. The answer to that will guide whether he gets picked by New Jersey.

That being said, I do hope someone will take a chance on Connor Clifton. He's come out of a good USNTDP program, he's on track to go to a university coming off a strong season where he can help keep the program there, and he's played against the type you'd expect from a small defenseman.

Your Take

Given that Clifton is a local prospect, I'm wondering whether you've seen him up close or even played against him. If you have, let us know in the comments. Additionally, have at it as to what you think of Clifton as a prospect based on what's available. Do you think he can become a pro-level defenseman in spite of his size? Are you surprised he's played as physically as he has been given his size? Will he get drafted, and when do you think it'll happen? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about Connor Clifton in the comments. Thank you for reading.

Devils in the Details - 5/20/2013: Doc is Still the Best Edition

2013-05-20T11:00:08Z

Your links for today:

Devils Links

Henrik Tallinder and the Swedes won gold at the World Championship. [Eye on Hockey]

Stephen Gionta, Ryan Carter and Team USA won bronze. [Eye on Hockey]

Hockey Links

The Doc Emrick Lexicon is large indeed. He used over 90 different descriptors for what happened to the puck in Red Wings-Blackhawks Game 1. He really is the best. [Awful Announcing]

On the Forecheck has the 2013 Alternative NHL Awards, which celebrates hockey's anti-heroes. These include the Icing on the Power Play Award, the Penalties in the Offensive Zone Award, the Masters of Swordplay Award and many more! [On the Forecheck]

Jonathan Quick was assessed a game misconduct for "abuse of officials" after Kings-Sharks Game 3. [PHT]

Raffi Torres gonna Raffi Torres. He was suspended for the rest of the second round for his hit on Jarret Stoll. [Eye on Hockey]

Jason Spezza returned last night for Senators-Penguins Game 3. Woah, man. [Eye on Hockey]

The National Anthem singer for the Memorial Cup forgot the words. Trainwreck. Ouch. [Puck Daddy]

Feel free to discuss these and any other hockey-related stories in the comments below.

New Jersey Devils Podcast Talking Red: Episode #114

2013-05-19T19:32:01Z

Today is Sunday and therefore there is another episode of the New Jersey Devils podcast Talking Red available for your listening pleasure. I have been under the weather for the past few days so I'm not in this one but you should still listen anyway. David Sarch was able to interview Brock Otten of OHL Prospects about, what else, OHL prospects. The two discuss Sean Monahan, Max Domi, Darnell Nurse, and so much more. In addition to that, David and Dan Pennucci are joined by former ILWT writer Tom Stivali to discuss the Devils' first round pick, drafting "small" guys, the playoffs, the World Championships, and so much more. As usual, it's a show worth listening.

I'd like to thank David for carrying on and Brock Otten for taking the time to be interviewed by David. The standard ways of listening to this week's episode are the same as it ever was. You can get the show directly here from the TR website. You can find it on iTunes and Stitcher. You can even stay right here and listen to a stream of this week's episode. No matter which way you choose, the show is 28.97 MB large and 1:03:18 long.

Please leave any comments, questions, and suggestions about this week's show in the comments here, at the TR website, by email to Talking Red, or tweet them to @TalkingRed. Thank you for listening to this episode.

Reviewing the Goals Allowed by Johan Hedberg: March 2013

2013-05-19T15:00:09Z

When we last looked at the New Jersey Devils' back-up goaltender Johan Hedberg, it was in February 2013. He came off getting shelled in a bad game by the Devils in Washington but suddenly had to become the default starter when Martin Brodeur suffered back problems prior to a game against Winnipeg on the next night. Hedberg was very poor in that game and made one early and bizarre decision that led to the game winning goal in the game after that. A heavy March schedule loomed and concerns would mount about Hedberg's ability to be the go-to guy as Brodeur remained hurt.

	GP	MIN	W	L	SO/OT	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
March 2013 - Johan Hedberg	10	567	3	5	2	17	2.86	216	189	.875	0

They mounted very quickly. And for good reason. The Devils would drop their first three games of the month before finally snapping a six game winless streak. Then the Devils promptly lost again, won via another shootout, finally got a regulation win, and then go winless until Brodeur returned on March 20. In that time frame, Hedberg allowed 27 goals in ten games. It's that kind of performance that leads fans to understandably criticize the goaltending. The coaching staff must have agreed as the next time Hedberg got back in the crease was in the final week of the season after the team was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. No matter how you cut it, March was an ugly month for Moose.

But how much of it was ugly by his own failings and how much of it was by others? A 87.5% save percentage definitely means the goalie is at least partially to blame. Let's not forget that the Devils didn't exactly light the lamp frequently and they weren't always so strong in their own end too. In order to better understand what happened we must look at what actually happened, let's revisit the 27 goals allowed by Hedberg in March.

About the Review

Before we get into this large list of goals allowed, let me restate what I'm doing here. The main thing I'm looking for in this review are "soft goals," those goals against that should have been stopped by the goaltender. Here's how I am defining a soft goal: The goalie must have seen the shot coming; the shot was not deflected or change otherwise in motion; the goalie was in position to actually make the stop; and/or the goaltender made an uncharacteristic mistake that led to the goal. If the goal allowed qualifies, then I deemed the goal as "soft." In fact, the very last bit alone can make the difference in what is and is not a soft goal. Breakaways are done on a case-by-case basis; there I usually look to see whether the goalie has at least made an effort. I do expect the most disagreement with them.

In addition, there are other traits I've recorded I have denoted skater errors by player and scoring chance. I assign a skater error by name under "Errors" if the player did something significantly wrong that led to the goal such as a turnover or not covering their man. It's arguable that all goals allowed have an error or some kind; these are for the egregious mistakes made. If it's something like a bad line change, I'll use "Bench." As for scoring chances, that's dependent on where the shot was fired. Anything between the two faceoff dots towards the top of the crease would count. Anything outside of that has not. I've erred against counting a chance if it's borderline, for what it's worth. I also denote the general position of where the shot beats the goaltender relative to the goaltender's position.

Lastly, I have provided links to the video I looked at for each goal from NHL.com. These links will auto-play the video, so be forewarned when you click on them.

The 27 Goals Allowed by Johan Hedberg in March 2013: A Chart

Date	GA#	Where Beaten?	GA Description	Soft?	Video	S.E.	SC?
3/2	19	Past the right pad	Hodgson feeds Pominville inside left circle. Pominville scores with one-timer.	No	Link	Butler	Yes
3/2	20	Between the legs	Hodgson feeds Pominville cross-ice off rush to Pominville. Pominville slides the one-timer through.	No	Link	-	Yes
3/2	21	Off Hedberg's right side	Hedberg stops Hecht's shot at left post, Girgorenko gets it to go behind net and find Hecht on other side. Hecht puts on off Hedberg's right and in.	No	Link	Salvador	No
3/4	22	Between the legs	Kadri attempted a pass to Komarov across the slot. Hedberg stopped the pass - only to deflect the puck in between his legs.	Yes	Link	-	No
3/4	23	Off the blocker and in	McClement blocks Elias' pass for a quick one-on-one with Hedberg. McClement chips it up, off Moose, and in.	Yes	Link	Elias	Yes
3/4	24	Between the legs	MacArthur all alone in front of Hedberg gets the puck. He goes backhand to forehand and slid it in between Hedberg's legs.	Yes	Link	Fayne	Yes
3/4	25	Past the left pad	van Reimsdyk leads a 2-on-1 with Kessel. Pass, shot, score past a diving Moose.	No	Link	Zidlicky	Yes
3/5	26	Between the legs	Salvador loses puck to Palat. Palat passes it to Conacher, who passes it to Thompson open in front. One-timer for the goal.	No	Link	Salvador	Yes
3/5	27	Over (tipped?) the right pad	Lecavalier leads 3-on-2 counter attack. He gets it to Killorn, who feeds it cross-slot to St. Louis. St. Louis lifts the puck for a goal.	No	Link	Fayne	Yes
3/5	28	Between the legs	Killorn gets away from Salvador in corner, takes the puck to the high slot, and fires low for success.	Yes	Link	Salvador	Yes
3/7	29	Past the blocker	Ennis feeds an open Vanek in the slot for a rocket of a shot.	No	Link	Elias	Yes
3/7	30	Between the legs	Sekera's shot is blocked, Flynn takes it and puts the puck in low through traffic.	No	Link	Salvador	Yes
3/9	31	Over the right pad	Corvo feeds a wide open Semin right in front of Hedberg. Semin makes a deke and lifts the backhander in.	No	Link	Zajac	Yes
3/9	32	Between the legs	Hedberg stops Staal's shot off the rush. Harrison rushes in to put back the rebound.	No	Link	-	Yes
3/9	33	Low, right, past a diving Moose	Devils caught in a change, Semin rushes up and makes a cross-slot pass to Tlusty for the goal.	No	Link	Bench	Yes
3/9	34	Between the legs	Sanguinetti shot gets deflected up high in the air. Larsson misses at knocking it away, Hedberg tries to square up for it, Terry gets it and slides it in.	Yes	Link	Larsson	Yes
3/9	35	Low, past the left pad	Hedberg tries to glove a loose puck off a bad-angle shot by Gleason. Skinner beats him to it and knocks it in past his left pad.	Yes	Link	-	Yes
3/10	36	Under the right arm	Stuart takes a long shot. Greene accidentally deflects it up past Hedberg.	No	Link	-	No
3/10	37	Over the glove, top left corner	Larsson stumbles with the puck on offense, which springs Kane in a 2-on-1. Kane keeps it and fires a laser to the top-left corner.	No	Link	Larsson	Yes
3/13	38	Past the glove	Simmonds gets puck down low, wheels, and finds Voracek open in the left circle. Pass, one-timer, goal.	No	Link	-	Yes
3/13	39	High, over a fallen Moose	Voracek blocks Salvador's shot and is off on a counter. He finds Hartnell streaking in from his left, hits him with a pass, and Hartnell puts one up over a low Moose.	Yes	Link	Salvador	Yes
3/15	40	Left flank	3-on-2 led by Read results in a pass to Gagne open in the slot. Gagne delays and as Greene & Larsson crash the net, hits Talbot with a pass for an easy goal.	No	Link	Greene Larsson	No
3/16	41	High, past right shoulder	Volchenkov loses it to Armstrong. He goes to the left dot and fires a high one through a double screen to find the top-right corner	No	Link	Volchenkov	Yes
3/16	42	Past the blocker	Zidlicky makes a blind backhand pass to no one on his team from the corner. Tinordi fires one from distance and Plekanec tips it in.	No	Link	Zidlicky	No
3/19	43	Past the right leg	After Stepan wins the puck from Harrold, he goes to the corner and lofts one to the front of the net. Del Zotto bats it down past Hedberg.	No	Link	Harrold	No
3/19	44	Past the right pad	Girardi misses on a long shot. The puck bounces off the back board to Hagelin, who beats Moose on his right flank.	No	Link	Harrold	Yes
3/19	45	Between the legs	Devils caught in a change, Nash keeps it in a 2-on-1 and fires a low, hard one through Hedberg from the left dot.	Yes	Link	Bench	Yes

Location of Goals Allowed

All locations listed are relative to Hedberg himself, not necessarily where the puck goes into the net. It's simplistic, but it works for general information. This was the month to either beat him between the legs or on the glove side because a majority of the goals allowed in March got past Moose in those areas.

Location	Count	% Total
Low Left	2	7.41%
Low Middle	9	33.33%
Low Right	4	14.81%
Medium Left	2	7.41%
Medium Middle	0	0.00%
Middle Right	7	25.93%
High Left	1	3.70%
High Middle	1	3.70%
High Right	1	3.70%

Commentary

In this past March, Hedberg played the most minutes for the Devils in a month since February 2011. Hedberg was far, far better then. He was down right fantastic in February 2011. In March 2013, not only did he allow 27 goals in ten games, but eight of those were soft ones. That's eight goals against he totally should have had. I honestly expected more, but reviewing the video reminded me that when it came to the 2013 Devils, they made some remarkable errors at times.

I found that the Hedberg had his biggest struggles early in the month. He settled down in March 2 as he was beaten by one-timers and a literal bad bounce off his body by Buffalo. Yet, his performance in Toronto on March 4 was arguably his worst of the season. GAs# 22, 23, and 24 were not only the first, second, and third goals of the game but they were all entirely stoppable situations. Moose made the wrong decision or got caught unaware and paid for it. The following night, Hedberg wasn't as calamtious but he got beaten by a stoppable shot from Alex Killorn on GA #28. That one sent him to the bench in favor of Keith Kinkaid. Four soft goals in two games led me to think this was going to be one long review. As it turned out, Hedberg wasn't as calamitous as time went on.

Of course, he wasn't perfect. It would be two games later when the next set of softies were baked (cooked? boiled?pureed?) as seen in GAs #34 and 35. That happened in Carolina and they were the fourth and fifth goals scored by the home team. Two nights after that, the Devils won their one game in regulation with Moose in the net. GA #39 wasn't the softest goal and it was essentially a consolation goal. However, I believe Hedberg went down too early and since he made the first move, the guy with the puck made the correct move. So I counted it. Two games later and it would be Hedberg's last until April; his final goal allowed of the month may have come off the rush but GA #45 was entirely stoppable. While Hedberg's other four soft goals were more spread apart, the closeness of all the games in the schedule plus the fact he didn't go farther than five goals allowed between soft goals felt like there were more. Hedberg absolutely deserves criticism for how he performed in March and these eight goals were the low-points to highlight in that regard.

That said, my goodness, some of the errors by the skaters were ridiculous. It made me wonder whether the team was trying to tick off a checklist of How to Screw Up and Pay For It. Turnovers? The two goals allowed to Montreal, GAs# 41 and 42, fit that bill. Losing the puck in your own end? GA #26 featured the captain with an ugly one there. Elias made a hideous one on GA #23 for what it's worth as well. Losing a board battle that led to something big for the opposition? Peter Harrold had position but lost the puck which led to a very strange shorthanded GA #43 (Hedberg did come out, but he didn't get get burnt and got back in position. Not his fault it was batted down in mid-air). Getting caught out of position? Harrold again provided a good example on GA #44. Leaving guys open in the slot? While they were on penalty kills, GAs #24, 29 and 31 immediately come to mind. Losing the puck on offense? Larsson's flub at the blueline led to GA #37 happening. Bad pinching? Zidlicky got caught and it led to the 2-on-1 that ended with GA #25. Lazy backchecking? Bobby Butler saw the bench when he came back to stand still for GA #19. Defensemen taking themselves out? GA #40 was a comedy of error performed by Adam Larsson and Andy Greene in what should have been a simple 3-on-2. Bad line changes? I counted two of those too: GAs # 33 and 45. Even the soft goals allowed had skater errors involved in most of them; goals allowed where, yeah, Hedberg should have made the save but he wasn't the only one who erred on the play. As poor as Hedberg has played at times in March, conceding 27 goals in ten games took a team effort. Throw in a lack of goal support when Moose only got beaten twice or three times, and the losses racked up too. No wonder Martin Brodeur started all the way through March 20 through April 25.

In terms of other findings, only six goals allowed were on special teams: two shorthanded (GAs #19 and #43) and four power play goals (GA #33 were allowed in March. Given that the Devils allowed seven power play goals and one shorthanded goal with Hedberg in net last month, that's actually some improvement. It also makes the 21 even strength goals allowed stand out even more. 21 of the 27 goals allowed came from that scoring chance area as far as I could tell in my review. Of the six non-scoring chance goals allowed, four were off deflections of some variety: GAs #22, 36, 42, and 43. The only non-scoring chance goal allowed that was soft was GA #22 in that Hedberg re-directed a pass past himself. It was bad to watch, though I would still contend GA #10 from February was his worst of the season.

Your Take

It was a poor March for Hedberg and the team as a whole wasn't successful with Moose in net. Still, I want your take on how Moose performed in March. Which of the goals allowed would you least want to remember? Of the eight soft goals, which one do you think was the worst? Perhaps you disagree with my choices and feel that others were or were not soft. Which ones would those be and why? Knowing what you know now, was it the right call for Hedberg to play as much as he did? Likewise, was it correct that he didn't see the ice again until late April due to this month's performance? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about the 27 goals allowed by Johan Hedberg in March in the comments. Thank you for reading.

David Clarkson Stands Alone: The 2013 UFA Forwards by Shots

2013-05-18T15:00:07Z

Until the final month of the season, the New Jersey Devils were near or at the bottom in generating shots for per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 play and in the bottom third of average shots per game. They bloomed in that regard in April - not necessarily with goals - to finish tied with Edmonton at 26.9 SF/60, the sixth lowest in the league and their overall shots per game average did jump to 18th in the league at 28.4. While the Devils were absolutely fantastic in their percentage of getting shooting attempts through compared to their opponents, it would've helped if the team was more prolific are putting rubber on net more often. Given their awful shooting percentage in 2013, maybe not that much in this past season, but it would be a benefit going forward. There's no way to score when you don't shoot, to turn a phrase.

Among the Devils' many pending unrestricted free agents, David Clarkson sticks out among the group. He's just under the age of 30. He's coming off a 30-goal season in the previous 82-game season and put up 15 goals in 48 games, which would result in 25 goals in a full season provided he scored at the same rate. As Mike noted last week, Clarkson was sensational in terms of possession at even strength and generating shots on net. So much so that he finished fourth in the NHL in shots on net in this past season. They weren't all great shots, but you can't deny that kind of production. For a team that could stand to put more shots on frame, keeping a guy like Clarkson seems like a logical conclusion.

Of course, that's also what is going to make many teams throw a lot of money at him this summer. It wouldn't surprise me if some of those offers are so large that it would make sense for New Jersey to walk away. That said, this year's UFA class of forwards doesn't really feature many prolific shooters. I took a list of the top 34 scoring UFA forwards - I replaced KHL-bound Roman Cervenka with Dustin Penner just for kicks - from CapGeek and added their shot totals from NHL.com. I organized the following chart by shots on goal per game to highlight how far ahead Clarkson is from the rest of the class. Incidentally, I also added the player's point totals if their point per game rate held up for 82 games, their shooting percentage for the 2013 season, their career shooting percentage, and the difference between the those percentages. I did all that to flesh out what each forward done on a production-basis.

2013 UFA	Team	Pos.	Age	GP	G	A	Pts	82Pts	SOG	SOG/GP	2013 S%	Career S%	Diff
Clarkson	NJD	RW	29	48	15	9	24	41.00	180	3.75	8.3	9.4	-1.1
Iginla	PIT	RW	35	44	14	19	33	61.50	134	3.05	10.4	13.2	-2.8
Dupuis	PIT	RW	34	48	20	18	38	64.92	140	2.92	14.3	10.0	4.3
Brunner	DET	RW	27	44	12	14	26	48.45	123	2.80	9.8	9.8	0.0
Horton	BOS	RW	27	43	13	9	22	41.95	114	2.65	11.4	14.6	-3.2
Jagr	BOS	RW	41	45	16	19	35	63.78	115	2.56	13.9	14.0	-0.1
Elias	NJD	C	37	48	14	22	36	61.50	118	2.46	11.9	12.4	-0.5
Stalberg	CHI	RW	27	47	9	14	23	40.13	113	2.40	8.0	9.0	-1.0
McDonald	STL	C	35	37	7	14	21	46.54	86	2.32	8.1	10.9	-2.8
Ryder	MTL	RW	33	46	16	19	35	62.39	101	2.20	15.8	12.8	3.0
Clowe	NYR	LW	30	40	3	16	19	38.95	87	2.18	3.4	11.2	-7.8
Alfredsson	OTT	RW	40	47	10	16	26	45.36	101	2.15	9.9	12.8	-2.9
Selanne	ANA	RW	42	46	12	12	24	42.78	96	2.09	12.5	15.2	-2.7
Roy	VAN	C	30	42	7	21	28	54.67	85	2.02	8.2	12.4	-4.2
Boyes	NYI	RW	31	48	10	25	35	59.79	97	2.02	10.3	12.1	-1.8
Gagne	PHI	LW	33	38	5	11	16	34.53	76	2.00	6.6	12.6	-6.0
Cleary	DET	LW	34	48	9	6	15	25.63	93	1.94	9.7	9.8	-0.1
Filppula	DET	C	29	41	9	8	17	34.00	78	1.90	11.5	12.8	-1.3
Cullen	MIN	C	36	42	7	20	27	52.71	79	1.88	8.9	9.4	-0.5
Penner	LAK	LW	30	33	2	12	14	34.79	61	1.85	3.3	12.0	-8.7
Prospal	CLB	LW	38	48	12	18	30	51.25	85	1.77	14.1	10.6	3.5
Raymond	VAN	LW	27	46	10	12	22	39.22	79	1.72	12.7	9.5	3.2
Bickell	CHI	LW	27	48	9	14	23	39.29	82	1.71	11.0	12.2	-1.2
Bouchard	MIN	RW	29	43	8	12	20	38.14	71	1.65	11.3	11.4	-0.1
MacArthur	TOR	LW	28	40	8	12	20	41.00	62	1.55	12.9	13.9	-1.0
Torres	SJS	LW	31	39	7	11	18	37.85	60	1.54	11.7	13	-1.3
Gomez	SJS	C	33	39	2	13	15	31.54	58	1.49	3.4	7.2	-3.8
Sullivan	NJD	LW	38	42	7	10	17	33.19	61	1.45	11.5	13.6	-2.1
Antropov	WIN	C	33	40	6	12	18	36.90	56	1.40	10.7	14.1	-3.4
Bozak	TOR	C	27	46	12	16	28	49.91	61	1.33	19.7	15.5	4.2
Ribeiro	WAS	C	33	48	13	36	49	83.71	63	1.31	20.6	14.8	5.8
Cooke	PIT	LW	34	48	8	13	21	35.88	61	1.27	13.1	11.9	1.2
Morrow	PIT	LW	34	44	12	13	25	46.59	55	1.25	21.8	15.7	6.1
Koivu	ANA	C	38	47	8	19	27	47.11	55	1.17	14.5	12.6	1.9
Wellwood	WIN	C	30	39	6	9	15	31.54	37	0.95	16.2	14.2	2.0

This not the strongest UFA class of forwards in terms of shooters. Among the top 35 in scoring - and that's a range that goes as low as 15 points - only 16 forwards have averaged over two shots per game. I figure only 12 of them may actually be available since I can't imagine Daniel Alfredsson and Teemu Selanne signing elsewhere, who knows what a 41-year old Jaromir Jagr will do, and I don't think it's even an argument that Patrik Elias needs to be re-signed. Only two in that group of 16 have averaged over three shots per game: David Clarkson and a 35-year old Jarome Iginla. And Clarkson smoked Iginla in SOGs this past year. If Clarkson does go elsewhere, it's going to take several people to replace that amount of shooting alone. Even if Clarkson stays, the Devils have only so many viable options from the market.

Of course, it's not all doom and gloom. If you're a believer the Devils should go after Nathan Horton, then you should be pleased to find him high on this list. He even shot at less than his career percentage in 2013, so perhaps he could bloom a little bit in the future. This isn't to say he's a must in the coming offseason, but it's additional evidence to like the guy. The Devils may want to keep an eye on Damien Brunner of Detroit, too. He just finished his first NHL season after plying his trade in Switzerland. It's unknown as far as what his future career will hold. Usually, guys don't get that much better at age 27. But he certainly had no aversion to firing away and he did end up just ahead of Horton in points too. Lastly, the Devils may be wise to get two guys on the lower end of the two-shots per game rate on the list to try to make the team shooting rate succeed by committee. Ryane Clowe and Derek Roy would be two that would be worth a closer look, especially since they shot way under their career shooting percentages last season. As with stocks, it's preferable to buy a forward coming off a lull than if he was coming off a hot year.

That said, this chart should pour some cold water on the notion that Clarke MacArthur can really replace David Clarkson in terms of shooting. Given that Clarkson's aggressive approach to firing the puck is an asset of his, I don't see how MacArthur can fit in a similar spot. He may do other things well, but generating shots hasn't been one of them. Likewise, Brenden Morrow was not only one of the least prolific shooters but he was firing them in at a rate of 21.8%. That's not going to last. He's basically a "buyer beware" free agent, along with Mike Ribiero or Tyler Bozak in terms of production. There are others on this list that may be good fits in other roles, but not as someone to replace Clarkson, should that be necessary.

I know that this is only one piece of the proverbial puzzle. I will look at other metrics in the future, such as on-ice Corsi rates (spoiler: Clarkson's going to look real good here too), ice time, and others. Still, David Clarkson really sticks out of this UFA class a high-shooting winger. Only Iginla managed to shoot over three shots per game in this past season like him, but he didn't come close to Clarkson's rate. If you believe the Devils need shooters and/or need more shots on net, then it's imperative to keep Clarkson and also sign one or two guys who've averaged around two shots per game. If Clarkson signs for crazy big money elsewhere, then it creates a problem that the upcoming market cannot readily fulfill on it's own.

I'm personally coming around to the idea that I'd rather have Clarkson stay even if it takes Scott Hartnell money (but not the term) to do it. The Devils would be better off generating more shots as a team and a guy like Clarkson helps immensely with that. Clarkson fired away with recklessness at times and the team was still in the ditch in terms of SF/60 and SOG/GP until that final month of the 2013 season. This makes Clarkson more valuable, not less. Of course, Clarkson and his representation knows this and that's why it's going to be up to them to decide what they do this summer.

Devils in the Details - 5/17/2013: Something Special Edition

2013-05-18T06:25:04Z

Your links for today:

Devils Links

The NHL has made it official: the Devils will play the Rangers in Yankee Stadium on January 26, 2014. Lou thinks it'll be "something special." [Fire and Ice] [NJ.com]

Lou has begun negotiations with David Clarkson, but not yet with Patrik Elias. [NJ.com]

Ryan Carter scored shorthanded (surprise!) and had an assist in Team USA's rout of Team Russia, 8-3. [NJ.com]

Hockey Links

Alex Ovechkin played the final two games of his 2013 playoffs with a broken foot. Ouch. [Eye on Hockey]

So then he decided to go play for Russia in the World Championships, where he suffered another five-goal loss. Rough. [Puck Daddy]

Adam Oates thinks he could easily beat up John Tortorella. Well, then. [PHT]

Patrick Kane, Matt Moulson and Martin St. Louis are the three finalists for the 2012-13 Lady Byng Memorial Trophy. [Cross Checks]

Jaromir Jagr doesn't think he is good now. OK, then. [Backhand Shelf]

Feel free to discuss these and any other hockey-related stories in the comments below.

A Look at the Consistency of the CBGB Line

2013-05-17T16:13:24Z

After the dissatisfying finish to the New Jersey Devils 2012-13 campaign, there are few bright spots for fans to continue hope. One of those positive aspects going forward is the CBGB line. Last season, Stephen Gionta played in the final game of the season against the Senators and managed to score his first NHL goal. Gionta's play was good enough for the Devils to keep him with the Devils throughout the postseason. In the postseason Peter DeBoer put Stephen Gionta, Steve Bernier, and Ryan Carter together on one line. Little did Devils fans know, we were about to witness the formation of a very solid line we named, The CBGB Line!

In order to compare the performance of the line, I'm going to compare the performance between the 2012 postseason and the 2013 regular season. Below are the basic stats from those two periods of play.

2012 Postseason Statistics
CBGB Players	GP	G	A	P	+/-
Ryan Carter	23	5	2	7	4
Stephen Gionta	24	3	4	7	4
Steve Bernier	24	2	5	7	3
Totals	71	10	11	21	11


2013 Regular Season Statistics
CBGB Players	GP	G	A	P	+/-
Ryan Carter	44	6	9	15	-2
Stephen Gionta	48	4	10	14	2
Steve Bernier	47	8	7	15	-7
Totals	139	18	26	44	-7

The consistency of this line is actually kind of ridiculous. The line as a whole played about twice the amount of games in 2013 than they did in 2012. They also scored about twice as much. In 2012, each player put up seven points while they all put up either 14 or 15 points in the 2013 season. All around, the line is very balanced. The only negative from these basic stats is the swing in plus minus from positive 11 to -7. In order to get a better look at game-by-game performance, I broke these stats down to a per game basis. The tables are below.

2012 Postseason Statistics
CBGB Players	GP	GPG	APG	PPG
Ryan Carter	23	0.22	0.09	0.30
Stephen Gionta	24	0.13	0.17	0.29
Steve Bernier	24	0.08	0.21	0.30


2013 Regular Season Statistics
CBGB Players	GP	GPG	APG	PPG
Ryan Carter	44	0.14	0.20	0.34
Stephen Gionta	48	0.08	0.21	0.29
Steve Bernier	47	0.17	0.15	0.32

Again, we can see that this line is very well balanced, especially for a depth line. Each player put up around 0.3 points per game in 2012 and pretty much the same scoring pace in 2013. While these numbers aren't amazing, they show a very good line that needs to be taken into consideration by the opponent. Another interesting note is that each player played around the same amount of minutes. The three players all played between 525 and 550 minutes of 5v5 time in the 2013 season.

As for possession, in the 2011-12 playoffs, all three players corsi on were well below -10. There possession as a line was not all that great. During the 2013 season, Carter and Bernier brought their corsi on to 9.08 and 7.76 respectively. However, Gionta was only a 0.34. This line has stuck together quite well and has improved their corsi. As for the reason of their improved corsi, I've got two theories. The first is that they have grown accustomed to playing together and have some "chemistry" together. The other theory is that their competition was not as strong during the season than during the playoffs. However, the quality of competition was actually lower in the playoffs than during the 2013 season, so that theory might not hold.

Overall, the CBGB line has been consistent throughout the time they've played together. While they haven't necessarily produced more, they have produced consistently and managed to increase their puck possession. Overall, I think the Devils have a solid depth line for at least another season. Given that these three players are 28 or 29 years old, I would hope the Devils lock them up for a few more season if they have another successful season next year.

Anthony Mantha: 2013 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

2013-05-16T15:20:39Z

Anthony Mantha was born just one day after the cut off for the 2012 NHL Entry Draft - and he couldn't be happier about it. When he was 17, he scored just three goals in the first half of the season, and then something clicked. In the second half of 2011-2012, he scored 40 points and 89 points last season. This upswing couldn't have happened at a better time - it helped get him ranked as the tenth best North American skater in the upcoming NHL Draft. As a right wing, it looks like Mantha could fill a hole in the New Jersey roster. Here is an in-depth look at what Anthony Mantha has to offer.

Who is Anthony Mantha?

Mantha has played for Val d'Or in the QMJHL for the past two seasons and really found his game during his time there. As noted above, his stats skyrocketed after a rough first half of the 2011-2012 season. In the 2012-2013 season, Mantha played in 67 games scoring 50 goals and adding 39 assists - that upped his total from the previous season by 38 points. He was also successful the 2013 playoffs, getting twelve points in just nine games.

The 6'4", 190 lbs forward not only has size to his advantage, but a lot of skill that shows he has potential at the next level. He is often compared to Sean Couturier who went eighth overall and went straight to the NHL, but Mantha likes to watch Jordan Staal. One fault he hopes to improve in his game is protecting the puck along the boards by using his size and build to his benefit.

Mantha's grandfather, André Pronovost won the Stanley Cup with the Montreal Canadiens from 1957-1960, is credited with getting Anthony interested in hockey. Mantha says,

"He taught me how to skate, how to play hockey, how to have fun. He had a huge impact on me. He helped me all the way up, even now, he gives me tips on what to do on the ice."

Mantha has a gritty style to his game, and he isn't afraid to head to the dirty areas around the net. With that style, he led the QMJHL in goals and was tenth overall in points. He doesn't just depend on his size, though. Mantha has an impressive wrist shot and quick release. He is more of a goal scorer than a playmaker, and seems to be headed towards the power forward role. It was difficult to see where his game was going just one year ago. It's amazing what the extra year did for him in his growth and value.

What Experts are saying about Anthony Mantha:

While the initial outlook on Mantha seems great, it is worth noting that he had an extremely tough time in the QMJHL Top Prospects Game. Ryan English of The Scouting Report wrote,

"Had a really tough game. He said in his TSR interview in November he needed to work on his work ethic game in and game out, and he had an off game without a doubt. Did not land a hit or a shot to my recollection, and outside of a few nice passes, showed no flashes of his shot or hands. Will be tough to overcome come draft day after a showing like that on a big stage in front of hundreds of scouts."

That is not the best game to have a bad showing in, but his season with Val d'Or was impressive enough to keep his ranking high.

Here is another quote from a piece written by The Scouting Report,

"Some things Mantha needs to work on are his compete level without the puck, which is an issue on the backcheck and his physicality. When a player with a big strong frame like Mantha doesn't use his size on the boards consistently it raises a red flag.

However, Mantha has been one of the dark horses leading the scoring race this year in the QMJHL, very few followers could have predicted his name at #5 in QMJHL scoring (tied for goal scoring lead) 25 games in. Mantha has gone from a disappointing 3 goal scorer through his first half of last season to scoring goals at a frantic pace, with 64 points (35-29) in his last 36 games played, split between the end of last year and the start of this year."

Finally, Brendan Ross of The Hockey Writers wrote,

"Mantha is an emerging raw prospect with fantastic scoring abilities...smooth skater with quick feet...owns great pro-size that complements his opportunistic scoring style well...has a knack for sneaking into scoring areas and pounces quickly on loose pucks...uses his quick release to fool defenders often faking a shot and opting to pass to an open teammate...needs to play with a consistent work ethic as he occasionally floats while waiting for the puck to come to him...could improve his physical game...promising power forward prospect with a scoring touch."

Anthony Mantha in action:

Here is a video showing some of Mantha's skill. It highlights a hat trick from late in the 2012-2013 season.

#8 Anthony Mantha hat trick vs Baie-Comeau (2012-03-17) (via TVhockeyprospect)

My Opinion:

Anthony Mantha really picked up his game last season, and while his numbers were impressive, is he a one-season-wonder? While it's possible, I think he has a great deal of potential and could be a great power forward with the right development. With that said, he wouldn't be my first choice for the Devils. I think there are better forwards available that fit the Devils' needs, and at least one should still be available by the time New Jersey is up to bat. If for some reason Mantha drops to the second round, I would love for the Devils to snatch him up there, though.

The biggest reason I would want Mantha in New Jersey is because I don't want to see the Devils have to face him. He seems to be a frustrating guy to play against. Again, if he is available in the second round, it would be great, but I would much rather see a player such as Hunter Shinkaruk or Sean Monahan selected with the number nine pick.

Your Take:

What are your thoughts on Mantha? Do you think the positive aspects to his game outweigh the negatives? Would you like New Jersey to draft him in the first round? If he is available, how would you feel about a second round steal? What makes you most excited his play? What worries you? Feel free to answer these questions or discuss anything about Anthony Mantha in the comments section below. Thanks for reading!