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Devils Issues & Views

The Margin of Wins and Losses by the New Jersey Devils and the NHL

The Devils are celebrating scoring a goal here.  The celebrated after winning the game.  Would the celebrate if they knew it was their 20th win by one goal this season? (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

More photos » Bill Kostroun - AP

The Devils are celebrating scoring a goal here. The celebrated after winning the game. Would the celebrate if they knew it was their 20th win by one goal this season? (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

In the comments of the recap of the recent 3-2 win by the New Jersey Devils over the Boston Bruins, user max16s had this question to say:

I wasn't impressed with this victory. The devils—for a while now—-have been a one goal win team. I’d like to see a stat on what percentage of Devils wins are by a single goal (even including empty netters) compared to the league average. I would not be surprised if a disturbing number of Devil wins are by a single goal. And this has been a trend over the past few seasons—-of course we all remember not being able to stretch the lead to two against Carolina. In the past we have attributed it to poor offense, but with the offensive skill on this team, I am really wondering why we very rarely "put a team away" as it were and grab that extra goal to ice it. This sense of urgency needs to change if the team is looking to make a long run. Especially if you want to have a long run, in that first round against a team like Boston you have to simply put them away.

Well, I have to disagree with the initial thought, and I don't know how it would bear out over past season.  However, I can answer the initial question about the Devils' margin of victories for this season.  It's a feature, not a bug.

Fortunately, the NHL keeps track of the team's record in games decided by one goal, two goals, or three and more goals.  However, rather than just linking to this and saying, "Have at it," I dug a little deeper to see how the Devils stack up against the league in each category.  Are the Devils relying on too many wins in one goal games?  Or is it in line with the rest of the league?   What else can be learned from the breakdown of the Devils' 41-24-3 record?

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Looking Closer at the New Jersey Devils' Power Play Issues

Here, the Devils are crashing the net after a long shot came from the point on a power play. Zach Parise eventually snuck in to put back a rebound for a goal. Should the Devils do this more often, though? (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

More photos » Bill Kostroun - AP

Here, the Devils are crashing the net after a long shot came from the point on a power play. Zach Parise eventually snuck in to put back a rebound for a goal. Should the Devils do this more often, though? (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Last night, the New Jersey Devils were down 3-1 going into the third period against the New York Islanders. A laser of a slapshot by Ilya Kovalchuk pulled the Devils within one early in the third period and the attack was on. Dwayne Roloson was bombarded with rubber as the Devils did whatever they could to get the equalizer. Dylan Reese of the Islanders high-sticked Zach Parise in the face and drew blood, giving the Devils a four minute power play.  Normally, this is a gift for the team down by one.

But the Devils not only squandered the opportunity, but surrendered a goal against that undercut the comeback effort. Sure, Blake Comeau tacked on a minor with 50 seconds left to leave a short 5-on-3 and an abbreviated 5-on-4, but again, the Devils didn't do much with.  Of the 21 shots the Devils had in the third period, about 4 of them came on the power play that lasted over 5 minutes in that same period.

That's a problem.  And it's not a new one.  On Wednesday, the Devils' offense showed up, made Marc-Andre Fleury of the Pittsburgh Penguins work all night long, and scored 3 goals. Yet, when Craig Adams took a 5 minute major penalty for a hit from behind on Martin Skoula; the Devils' offense shrunk out there and only put a few shots on net.  A later power play in the second period looked a little better but yielded later.

The power play for the New Jersey Devils has been frustrating to watch, considering the personnel involved.  With another week of four games, surely, power play opportunities will come up for New Jersey. Let's discuss what the problems are in more detail in the hopes of finding some root cause to their power play struggles.

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Vladimir Zharkov Makes Offense Happen? The New Jersey Devils' CORSI Values

When Vladimir Zharkov is out and about on the ice, offense happens.  Really. (AP Photo/Rich Schultz)

More photos » Rich Schultz - AP

When Vladimir Zharkov is out and about on the ice, offense happens. Really. (AP Photo/Rich Schultz)

Earlier today, I was checking out the blog by the operator and owner of hockey statistics site Behind the Net, appropriately called Behind The Net.  Today, Hawerchuk had post on the overachievers and underachievers in the NHL with respect to their CORSI numbers.  He figured out who was exceeding and not at all meeting expectations through a regression analysis of the CORSI values that are regularly collected and calculated at Behind the Net.   No one on the New Jersey Devils is overachieving, though Mark Fraser did appear on the underachievers list.

Now, as explained in the post at Behind the Net, CORSI tallies the number of shots for and shots against while a player is on the ice.  It's a stat that requires context, such as the quality of opponent, quality of teammates, and, of course, the player's own role and skills.  Mark Fraser not having a high CORSI shouldn't surprise anyone given his low average ice time of 12:12, he's almost always on the third defensive pairing, and that he's a stay at home defenseman.

Nevertheless, I figured it would be a good time as any to take a look at the active roster's CORSI values.  I'm only focusing on even strength situations since power plays result in high CORSI values (NJ would be shooting in a short period of time) and penalty killing situations lead to very low CORSI values (NJ would be primarily defending in a short period of time) by default.  To take out players who haven't contributed much, I've limited the values to players who have played 20 games or more this season.  I obtained all of these values from Behind the Net. To make it a little more interesting, I decided to also list the where each player ranks among the Devils (and only the Devils) in scoring for this season according to NHL.com's stats page.

I think you'll be surprised who has the highest CORSI value on the team if you didn't figure it out from the title.

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Let's Take a Deep Breath, Devils Fans: What Can Be Done to Break the Slump

The Devils lost 14 of their last 20, most recently in Edmonton, losing 2-0 to the Oilers.  Now what?  (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, John Ulan)

More photos » John Ulan - AP

The Devils lost 14 of their last 20, most recently in Edmonton, losing 2-0 to the Oilers. Now what? (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, John Ulan)

My fellow Devils fans, please take a deep breath.

The New Jersey Devils are mired in a big slump.  A struggle that hasn't been seen in quite some time. The Devils have obtained a record of 6-12-2 in their last 20 games.  Slipping in and out of periods or falling flat on their faces has become a hallmark.  Solid performances are spotty through the roster and an entirely solid game by the team has become increasingly rare.  You're not happy. I'm not happy. Jacques Lemaire isn't happy. The players aren't happy.  Surely, Lou isn't happy.  Despite announcing a deal that would have the New Jersey Nets play at the Rock, I can't imagine Jeff and the rest of the ownership group aren't happy either..  The post-game quotes after the 2-0 loss at Edmonton from Rich Chere and Tom Gulitti speak for themselves.   The team has gotten healthier and healthier and yet they keep dropping more and more games in unsatisfactory performances. Everyone involved is frustrated.

Now, my fellow Devils fans, please take another deep breath.

We can choose to blame our preferred scapegoats for the horrible recent run of games such as Mike Mottau, Martin Brodeur's workload, the newly-acquired Ilya Kovalchuk, and/or a lack of youth.  We can speculate over whether Lemaire lost the locker room or the coaches aren't making the right adjustments.  We can point back at a dustbin of history where the success stands out but any flaw is ignored.

I don't want do any of that.  Let's take a step back and look at the current situation and discuss what can be done and can't be done to break this slump.  By no means are these guaranteed ways to get the Devils winning hockey games again.  Consider it a thought-out rant if you want.   Nonetheless, I offer these suggestions going forward.

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I Defend the Decision to Start Martin Brodeur against Edmonton

New Jersey Devils goalie Martin Brodeur will start on Sunday.  I defend the decision. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jeff McIntosh)

More photos » Jeff McIntosh - AP

New Jersey Devils goalie Martin Brodeur will start on Sunday. I defend the decision. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jeff McIntosh)

The numbers for Brodeur as of late has been poor.    In his last 10 NHL starts, Brodeur has been pulled once (5-2 loss to Carolina on 2/13) and has allowed more than 3 goals in all but one game (the 5-2 win over Nashville on 2/12).  In each of the recaps for those games, I feel I went to enough length to explain what I thought about each goal against; but it's clear that common sentiment only cares about the numbers.   Understandable, this is a results-oriented business.  The recent results aren't enough for most New Jersey Devils fans and so the various blog comments and various message board posts aren't pleased with Brodeur.


GP MIN W L GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2009 - Martin Brodeur 60 3487 35 21 138 2.37 1569 1431 .912 7

Needless to say, Brodeur is taking whatever heat he may feel pretty close to home and he's candid on that he has to play better.  His comments after the 5-3 loss to Calgary are proof of this sentiment, as reported by Gulitti. That said, I'm sure more than few Devils fans would like to see Yann Danis get a start against the team with the worst record in the NHL.  Perhaps the team will play better in front of him. Perhaps Brodeur will be more focused for Wednesday's game against Our Hated Rivals as a result.


GP MIN W L GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2009 - Yann Danis 9 324 3 1 10 1.85 146 136 .932 0

Tom Gulitti reported earlier today that Martin Brodeur will get the start on Sunday night according to Jacques Lemaire.  I'm sure some (many?) Devils fans won't be too pleased to hear this, given all of this in mind.  That said, I not only think it's the right decision but the best decision given the current circumstances.  I offer my reasoning after the jump.

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The Newest New Jersey Devil: Introducing Martin Skoula

Martin Skoula - now a New Jersey Devil. (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek, File)

More photos » Kathy Kmonicek - AP

Martin Skoula - now a New Jersey Devil. (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek, File)

The New Jersey Devils made only one trade at the trade deadline today; acquiring Martin Skoula from the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for a 2010 fifth round draft pick.   Thanks to Steve for getting the info up so quickly.  The general reaction in Steve's post about the trade is about right: it's a minor deal, if it works great, but if it doesn't it's no big loss.  No Devils fan should be too upset for the lack of action considering Lou pulled off a blockbuster back in February to bring Ilya Kovalchuk to the Rock.   Now, opinion does vary as to what Martin Skoula can do.  Now that he's a New Jersey Devil, let's get to learn a little more about the 30 year old defenseman, who is making $575,000 for this one-year deal.


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG ATOI SOG PCT
2009-10 - Martin Skoula 33 3 5 8 -4 6 1 0 0 16:43 23 13.0
Career Stats - Martin Skoula 757 44 149 193 9 324 17 0 5 - 775 5.7

I will tell you up front, he's a depth defenseman.  He's not better than Mike Mottau and I question if he's really an improvement over Mark Fraser and Anssi Salmela.  Quite frankly, he hasn't been all that good of a defenseman recently.   Read on for a compilation of information about Skoula's last full season with Jacques Lemaire and Minnesota, as well as his time in Pittsburgh from this season.

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Martin Skoula Traded to the New Jersey Devils from Toronto Maple Leafs For a Fifth-Round Pick in 2010 Draft

Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Martin Skoula celebrates his second goal of the game against Atlanta Thrashers goalie Johan Hedberg during the second period of their NHL hockey game on Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009, at Philips Arena in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Erik S. Lesser)

More photos » Erik S. Lesser - AP

3 months ago: Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Martin Skoula celebrates his second goal of the game against Atlanta Thrashers goalie Johan Hedberg during the second period of their NHL hockey game on Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009, at Philips Arena in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Erik S. Lesser)

Want more signs Lou Lamoriello wasn't happy with how the Devils defense was playing?  Aside from the rumors that New Jersey had talked to Anaheim about Scott Niedermayer?  Well, Lou went through and made a deal that improves their depth at the position if nothing else.  The Devils acquired Martin Skoula from the Toronto Maple Leafs, the morning after he'd been traded to Toronto for Alexei Ponikorovski from the Pittsburgh Penguins.  The deal appears to be for what TSN's Darren Dreger calls "a middle-round pick".  UPDATE: Bob McKenzie of TSN calls it a 5th Rounder.

Skoula won a Stanley Cup in 2001 with the Colorado Avalanche, and spent four years playing under Devils head coach Jacques Lemaire with the Minnesota Wild.  Frankly, if Jacques likes him, and he's been through the battles, I'm fine with the deal.  I understand Lou's reticence to blow things up yet again for a big-name defenseman that he may be unfamiliar with.  That said, it doesn't necessarily alleviate your fears of the Devils defense breaking down like they did last night again.

More to come the rest of the day, we'll all see if this is just a part of more work being done by Lou to improve the team.  Check out SBNation's Trade Deadline section for much more.


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The In Lou We Trust Trade Deadline Day Open Thread

Note: I did write this before the conclusion of the Devils-Sharks game.  Do check out Steve's recap when it's up.

Anyway, today will be a busy day in the NHL as it's the season's trade deadline.  Please use this post for all your thoughts and comments about today's trade activity throughout the league.  Laugh at bad deals, worry about deals that make intra-division opponents stronger, and scratch your head over what future consideration could possibly mean. I'd like to thank user elesias for giving me the idea; but I can't update FanShots to be pushed up the page so this should suffice.

If there are any Devils-related trades, Steve will have something up during the day or I'll have a post on it in the evening. Remember that the Devils already made one big trade, acquiring Ilya Kovalchuk and Anssi Salmela from Atlanta for Niclas Bergfors, Johnny Oduya, prospect Patrice Cormier, and a first round pick (second rounders were also swapped).  I doubt they'll make a second massive trade, despite how bad the team looked before the Olympic break.

Last week, given Paul Martin's injury, most of the readers polled felt the Devils should go out and get a defenseman.  I agree If there's a deal done, I would want it to be for a defenseman; but with Lou Lamoriello, you can never tell what he'll do.  Normally, he makes a trade at the deadline but it's usually not a huge deal; like the Anssi Salmela for Niclas Havelid swap last season or Cam Janssen for Bryce Salvador.  Given the blockbuster trade from February, I personally doubt he'll do much more than that if anything at all. Paul Martin may be all that this team needs, really.

Here are some resources that I recommend for trade deadline day:

Again, please leave all your thoughts and feelings about today's trade deadline action in the comments. All rules apply as usual; please link to all reports out there (link to the Tweet, news story, etc.) and don't make things up in the comments.  Especially on a day like today.

NHL Trade Rumors and Hockey Blogs - SB Nation NHL Trade Deadline

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